ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT: THEORY AND PRACTICE УДК 620.9:330.366:330.46 (477) JEL: SUKHODOLIA Oleksandr1, KHARAZISHVILI Yurii2, BOBRO Dmytro3 1National Institute for Strategic Studies, Research ID : http://www.researcherid.com/rid/ METHODOLOGICAL BASIS FOR ASESSING THE LEVEL AND STRATEGIC PLANING OF THE ENERGY SECURITY OF UKRAINE The problems of the description of energy security as an object of management and the choice of indicators for assessing the state of energy security are studied. It is proposed to develop a new model of such a description based on the application of a systemic approach. A structural and functional scheme of Ukraine’s national security is developed, which determines the place and role of energy security in ensuring fundamental national interests – sustainable development of the national economy, civil society and the state for increasing the level and quality of life, as well as state sovereignty, independence, etc. Methodological recommendations for the formation of a set of indicators for assessing the level of energy security are developed. It was proposed to describe the energy security through allocation of indicators according to the system description, namely perception of the whole system, structure, functions, processes, and system material. The proposed method for determining indicators allows assessing the state (as a set of indicators that reflect the perception of the whole system from the outside) and the system’s ability to develop and respond to threats (as a set of indicators that reflect the functions and processes of the system). Taking into account these approaches, a system of indicators was proposed for assessing the level of energy security that reflects: resource adequacy, affordability, economic acceptability, environmental acceptability, resource and technical support, institutional and organizational support, compliance with policy and objectives. Based on a compromise between complexity and simplification, 42 indicators are proposed (taking into account «shadow» ones, without which the assessment of the level of security will be inadequate to reality). For each indicator, the limits of safe existence are scientifically substantiated: the vector of threshold values. The methodological basis for identification of the level of energy security and strategy planning is the concept of sustainable development from the standpoint of security. Based on this approach, an integrated multifactor model of energy security is developed and modeling was done to determine the current level of energy security of Ukraine and a list of major threats. To solve the problem of strategic planning, a new approach is applied, based on the principle «the future is determined by the trajectory into the future» instead of the principle of classical forecasting «the past determines the future». Keywords:system approach; structure; function; processes; multifactor model; energy security; identification; forecasting; strategy planning
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