Published since September 1958

№ 9/2020

Ekon Ukr. 2020 (9): 48–65https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2020.09.048

METHODS OF ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING

УДК 331.55:314.7:005

JEL: С51, O15, R23

¹SI “Institute of Regional Research named after M.I. Dolishniy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”, Research ID : http://www.researcherid.com/rid/AAO-7072-2020
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8174-9918
²Institute of Regional Research named after M.I. Dolishniy of the NAS of Ukraine”, Research ID : http://www.researcherid.com/rid/
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1666-3971

MODELING OF INTENSITY OF EXTERNAL MIGRATION OF UKRAINIAN POPULATION IN THE CONDITIONS OF STRENGTHENING OF THE PUSH ENVIRONMENT

International migration is a complex social phenomenon, the extent of which depends on the conditions and factors of the macro-, meso- and microenvironment, which forms the motivational guidelines of the population and promotes its push-out or containment. Among the factors of the macroenvironment, the medical-demographic and socio-economic situation as well as environmental and political challenges in the country are important. The main drivers among meso-factors are communication technologies, diaspora and family ties, and among the drivers of the microenvironment are education, religious beliefs, marital status and personal attitudes to migration.
A scientific and methodological approach to a comprehensive assessment of the push environment of the population of a country or region abroad is built and the influence of factors on the level of intensity of external migration of the population in different time lags is modeled.
The presented authors’ methodological approach involves assessing the level of “aggressiveness” of the push environment stimulating migration of the Ukrainian population abroad (based on the calculation of the integral index of the environment) and building models of dependence of emigration intensity on the push environment in Ukraine and the border region. An integral assessment of the push environment of the population emigration is carried out using a multiplicative approach and calculation of the values of the main components for all indicators and groups of indices.
It is proved that the intensity of external migration of the population of Ukraine and Lviv Oblast directly depends on the level of “aggressiveness” of the push environment. Namely, the environment of pushing the population abroad is actively responding to the crisis-revolutionary events and related macroeconomic shocks. It is substantiated that the short-term multiplier of the levels of intensity of external migration and push-out of the population of Ukraine abroad is insignificant, as the average time lag of migration processes in Ukraine is about two years. Ukraine as a whole is characterized by a high impact of the level of the push environment in the medium and long term, while for the Lviv Oblast such impact is defined as moderate. In the border area, there is a high level of dependence of the intensity of migration processes of the population for previous periods.

Keywords:population migration; push environment; external migration intensity; integral assessment; modeling

Article original in Ukrainian (pp. 48 - 65)

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The article was received by the Editorial staff on June 1 , 2020

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