Economy of Ukraine
Published since September 1958
Login

№ 12/2023

Ekon Ukr. 2023 (12): 41–67
https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2023.12.041

AGRI-FOOD ECONOMICS AND RURAL TERRITORIES DEVELOPMENT

УДК 338.43:551.588

JEL: Q01, Q18, Q54, Q57

SHUBRAVSKA Olena1, PROKOPENKO Kateryna2

1Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine, Research ID : http://www.researcherid.com/rid/
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2109-9308
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine, Research ID : http://www.researcherid.com/rid/
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/ https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1456-4432


RISKS AND INDICATORS OF UKRAINE’S AGRICULTURE RESILIENCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE


Climate change is recognized as one of the most serious modern threats to the long-term goals of social development. In agriculture, this change provokes the lack of guaranteed incomes for agricultural producers and food security risks and can negatively affect the agricultural system resilience in general. Ensuring the agriculture resilience is related to greening, climate neutrality and high resistance to the negative effects of abrupt climate change. The study of the risks to agriculture resilience should have a systemic nature and be linked to the specific conditions of particular territory.
It is proposed to group the risks to domestic agriculture resilience by the economic, climatic, environmental, and social areas of their manifestation. To effectively tackle the negative effects of climate change in agriculture and reduce the agrarian sector’s impact on the climate, timely forecasting and management of relevant risks are necessary, for which a system of resilience indicators must be formed. This will allow to identify vulnerabilities and gaps in the ability to ensure resilience, as well as to assess the effectiveness of measures to mitigate the negative impact of adverse factors on the resilience of agriculture.
For the conditions of Ukraine, a comprehensive system of agricultural resilience indicators is proposed, which includes four blocks: economic, environmental and climate, social resilience, and climate neutrality. Key benchmarks for achieving resilience are determined: ensuring national food security and farmers' incomes; decrease in the agricultural crops yield volatility; reduction of agricultural carbon emissions; securing the personnel potential of agriculture. Calculations of relevant indicators proved that in the pre-war period (in particular, in 2021 compared to 2015) the situation was not threatening only in the economic area. Meanwhile, there were significant threats in environmental and climate resilience and climate neutrality areas.


Keywords:agriculture; resilience in development; climate change; climate resilience; greening of agriculture; hostilities; resilience assessment

Article original in Ukrainian (pp. 41 - 67) DownloadDownloads :100
The article was received by the Editorial staff on September 13 , 2023

References

1. Hallegatte S. Economic Resilience. Definition and Measurement. Policy Research Working Paper 6852. The World Bank. Climate Change Group, May 2014. URL: documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/350411468149663792/pdf/WPS6852.pdf
doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6852

2. Johnson J.M.-F., Franzluebbers A.J., Weyers S.L., Reicosky D.C. Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental Pollution, 2007, Vol. 150, Iss. 1, pp. 107-124.
doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2007.06.030

3. Prastiyo S.E., Hardyastut S.I. et al. How agriculture, manufacture, and urbanization induced carbon emission? The case of Indonesia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020, Vol. 27, pp. 42092-42103.
doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10148-w

4. Howden M., Soussana J., Tubiello F. et al. Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2007, Vol. 104, No. 50, pp. 19691-19696.
doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701890104

5. Rosenzweig C., Elliott J., Deryng D. et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014, Vol. 111, No. 9, pp. 3268-3273.
doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110

6. Aggarwal P., Roy J., Pathak H. et al. Managing Climatic Risks in Agriculture. In: Indian Agriculture Towards 2030. R. Chand, P. Joshi, S. Khadka (Eds.). India Studies in Business and Economics. Springer, Singapore, 2022.
doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0763-0_4

7. Nelson G.C., Rosegrant M.W., Palazzo A. et al. Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050. Washington, D.C., International Food Policy Research Institute, 2010.

8. Food Systems at risk. New trends and challenges. S. Dury, P. Bendjebbar, E. Hainzelin, T. Giordano, N. Bricas (Eds.). Rome, FAO-CIRAD-European Commission, 2019.

9. Shubravska O., Prokopenko K. Scenario assessments of the development of agricultural production in Ukraine under conditions of climate change and environmental constraints. Economy of Ukraine, 2017, No. 2, pp. 49-60. URL: economyukr.org.ua/?page_id=723&lang=uk&aid=244 [in Ukrainian].

10. Challenges and consequences of Ukraine's agro-food specialization in the world economy. O.V. Shubravska (Ed.). Kyiv, 2023. URL: ief.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Vyklyky-ta-naslidky-ahroprodovolchoi-spetsializatsii-Ukrainy.pdf [in Ukrainian].

11. Towards Sustainable Development. Alternatives to GDP for measuring progress. P. Schepelmann, Y. Goossens, A. Makipaa (Eds.). Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, 2010. URL: epub.wupperinst.org/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/3486/file/WS42.pdf

12. Hermansen M., Röhn O. Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries. OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2017, Vol. 2016/1, pp. 9-35.
doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2016-5jg2ppjrd6r3

13. Bizikova L., Waldick R., Larkin P. Can We Measure Resilience? Reducing Agriculture's Vulnerability to Climate Change. International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), 2017. URL: www.jstor.org/stable/resrep17139

14. Zong X., Xiaojie Liu X., Chen G., Yin Y. A deep-understanding framework and assessment indicator system for climate-resilient agriculture. Ecological Indicators, 2022, Vol. 136, 108597.
doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108597

15. Kotykova O., Bohoslavska A. Economic indicators of agricultural land use in the system of monitoring sustainable development Ukraine. Agrosvit, 2017, No. 9, pp. 3-11. URL: www.agrosvit.info/?op=1&z=2388&i=0 [in Ukrainian].

16. Nechyporenko O. Risk management of global climate change in the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine. Ekonomika APK, 2020, No. 4, pp. 6-16 [in Ukrainian].
doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202004006

17. Tarariko O.H. SWOT analysis and GAP analysis of policies, programs, plans and legislation in the field of agriculture and preparation of recommendations for their improvement in accordance with the provisions of the Rio Conventions. Kherson, 2016 [in Ukrainian].

18. Balyuk S.A., Vorotinceva L.I., Zaharova M.A., Nosonenko A.A. Criteria and indicators of soil evolutions under the influence of climate change. Scientific look into the future, 2017, No. 3, pp. 87-95 [in Ukrainian].
doi.org/10.30888/2415-7538.2017-07-03-059

19. Meuwissen M.P.M., Feindt P.H., Spiegel A. et al. A framework to assess the resilience of farming systems. Agricultural Systems, 2019, Vol. 176, 102656.
doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102656

20. Shubravska O.V., Prokopenko K.O. Prospects of Ukraine's agricultural sector modernization. Economy of Ukraine, 2013, No. 8, pp. 64-76 [in Ukrainian].

21. Baliuk S., Medvedev V., Miroshnichenko M., Skrylnik Ye., Timchenko D., Fatieev A., Khristenko A., Tsapko Yu. Environmental state of soils in Ukraine. Ukrainian Geographical Journal, 2012. No. 2, pp. 38-42. URL: ukrgeojournal.org.ua/sites/default/files/UGJ-2012-2-38_0.pdf [in Ukrainian].